Covid-19 Ohio Update: Why are Deaths Declining While Positive Cases are Increasing?

Summary

The mortality risk of Covid-19 appears to be steadily declining while the number of positive cases is rising dramatically in Ohio.  Assuming the Covid-19 testing methodology is accurate, two plausible hypotheses for this include:  1) a broader population infection reflecting healthier individuals fighting off this infection, and 2) the SARS-CoV2 virus is mutating into less virulent strains.  Both hypotheses could be happening simultaneously.  Hospitalization rates and ICU admission rates also are declining as the positive case rate is rising.  Importantly, absolute numbers of hospitalizations and ICU admissions are also holding steady or dropping off.  Results indicate that Covid-19 has not negatively impacted Ohio’s medical resources.

Got another reason why death rates keep falling while Covid-19 positive cases keep increasing?  Please leave a note in the comments section.

Deaths

When compared to the increased Covid-19 infection rates, deaths are falling dramatically:

Total death rates are declining:

Covid-19 positive cases have risen dramatically:

Impact on Medical Resources

Total hospitalization rates have not increased while positive Covid-19 cases have increased:

Total ICU admissions have dropped off while positive Covid-19 cases have increased:

Methods

All data were obtained on the State of Ohio’s Covid-19 Dashboard – Key Metrics on Cases:

https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/key-metrics/cases

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